Will the mayor of San Diego or Los Angeles be charged with a federal crime for interfering with ICE before 2028?
Basic
2
Ṁ55
2028
29%
chance

Background

The mayors of San Diego and Los Angeles operate under California state law, particularly the California Values Act (Senate Bill 54), which restricts state and local law enforcement agencies from using resources for immigration enforcement. Recent disputes in San Diego involve the county's policy to limit cooperation with ICE, though this primarily involves the County Board of Supervisors and Sheriff's Department rather than the mayor directly.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve YES if either the mayor of San Diego or Los Angeles is formally charged with a federal crime specifically related to interfering with Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) operations before January 1, 2028. The charge must be directly related to actions taken in their official capacity regarding ICE operations.

The market will resolve NO if neither mayor is charged with such a federal crime before 2028.

Considerations

  • Current policies limiting cooperation with ICE in both cities align with California state law

  • Federal charges against local officials for implementing state-sanctioned immigration policies would be unprecedented

  • The dispute in San Diego is primarily between county-level entities, not city leadership

  • Any changes to federal law or court rulings declaring these state and local policies illegal could affect the likelihood of charges

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
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