Resolution Criteria:

This market will resolve based on the state of SOTA reasoning models on December 31, 2026.

Non-token-based CoT Definition:

A reasoning model uses "non-token-based CoT" if the architecture allows some activation to sequentially go through at least some part of the network an arbitrary number of times without at some point being projected from a continuous multidimensional activation into a discrete state (like token IDs).

Specific Resolution Cases:

• Counts as non-token-based CoT: Tokens are generated but there is also a residual connection that feeds back continuous activations into earlier layers

• Does not count: All recurrent connections must go through token IDs, even if those tokens don't translate into understandable text (for example due to steganography)

• Examples that would count: Systems similar to [Hao et al. 2024] or [Geiping et al. 2025] architectures, if they achieve SOTA performance

Conditional Resolution:

This is a conditional prediction market based on the "SOTA AI at EOY 2026 a reasoning model?" market. If that market resolves NO (i.e., no SOTA AI is a reasoning model), this market does not resolve and all participants get their mana back.

SOTA Determination:

The determination of which AI system is “state-of-the-art” will be based on a combination of:

• General consensus in the AI community

• Performance on major benchmarks

• My subjective assessment of overall capabilities and impact