Resolution criteria

• Resolves YES if, by 23:59:59 UTC on December 31, 2026, a new, commercially available rechargeable sodium‑ion battery product (cell, module, or pack) is publicly offered or sold at a price ≤ US$10 per kWh, excluding taxes, duties, and shipping. Compute $/kWh as listed unit price divided by the product’s nominal nameplate energy (Wh).

• Acceptable evidence: (a) an official price page or catalog from the manufacturer or an authorized distributor, (b) a publicly posted government procurement/award or signed contract showing the unit price and capacity, or (c) reputable trade press linking to such documentation. A snapshot captured by the Internet Archive’s Wayback Machine on/before the deadline must be provided for any webpage evidence. If priced in a non‑USD currency, convert using the ECB reference rate for the listing/award date. Links for verification: Wayback Machine, ECB converter. (help.archive.org, data.ecb.europa.eu)

• Exclusions: used/refurbished units, prototypes/dev kits, prices contingent on undisclosed rebates/credits, bundle prices where the battery’s price or capacity cannot be isolated, preorder pages without a firm price, primary (non‑rechargeable) sodium batteries. If no qualifying evidence appears by the deadline, resolves NO.

Background

• Sodium‑ion (Na‑ion) is an emerging rechargeable chemistry pursued by firms like CATL (first‑generation Na‑ion launch in 2021) and HiNa; BYD began building a 30 GWh Na‑ion plant in Xuzhou in January 2024. (catl.com, hinabattery.com, electrive.com)

• For context, BloombergNEF reported the 2024 global average lithium‑ion pack price at $115/kWh (with China averaging ~$94/kWh and some LFP packs even lower). These levels illustrate how extreme a $10/kWh target would be. (about.bnef.com, ess-news.com, electrive.com)

• CATL has said they're launching a $10/kWh battery.

Considerations

• Pricing is often opaque; list prices can differ from large‑volume contract prices. Evidence must show a firm per‑unit price and nameplate energy for an actual orderable product.

• Pack vs. cell: the criterion counts either, so long as both price and Wh are explicit; usable energy (after DoD limits) is not used—only nameplate Wh.

• Currency swings can affect USD equivalence; use the specified official rate on the listing date to avoid disputes. (data.ecb.europa.eu)