Norway Chess 2025 - Prop Bets
7
Ṁ1119
Jun 5
57%
Magnus loses a classical game
28%
Top 3 is Carlsen, Caruana, Nakamura in any order
55%
Magnus does not lose any armageddon games
41%
Gukesh finishes above Pragg
21%
Young player wins the tournament (Gukesh, Arjun, Wei Yi)
61%
Magnus loses Elo (starting vs final)
41%
Caruana finishes above Hikaru
37%
The winner will win exactly 3 classical games
58%
Total score of Americans (Caruana, Hikaru) will be higher than total score of Indians (Arjun, Gukesh)
63%
Someone loses exactly 3 classical games
29%
Every player wins at least one classical game
45%
Winner will lose at least one classical game
43%
Winner will win have more Armageddon wins than classical wins
44%
Caruana gains Elo (starting vs final)
29%
Wei Yi finishes in top 3
37%
Hikaru finishes in bottom 3
34%
Someone will draw all of their classical games
59%
Arjun finishes above Wei Yi
46%
Five or more rounds will feature only draws in the classsical portion
40%
There will be a round with 3 decisive classical games

Norway Chess starts on May 26 and ends on June 6. It will be a double round-robin classical tournament (10 rounds/games total) - everyone plays all opponents twice. If the classical game ends in a draw, players contest an armageddon game. Players will get 3 points for win in classical, 1.5 for win in armageddon, 1 for loss in armageddon and 0 points for loss in classical.

Feel free to add any questions you can think of.

Rule clarifications:

  • Questions are only about Open section of Norway chess unless stated otherwise

  • Unless stated otherwise "highest"/"most"/"least" etc. includes ties ("Player has the most points at the end")

  • Options that refer to final rankings (last, first, top 3, ...) include tiebreaks if there are any. But if there are no tiebreaks, then for example "last" will resolve to YES even if 2 players share the last place.

Market for the winner: https://manifold.markets/Weezing/who-will-win-norway-chess-2025

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
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