Resolves YES if any new submarine cable damage incidents are reported in the Baltic Sea region. Must be confirmed by cable operators or relevant authorities.

Sources for verification: Official operator announcements, NATO statements, major news outlets.

Background In late 2024, several submarine cable incidents occurred in the Baltic Sea region, raising concerns about potential sabotage and infrastructure security. These incidents affected telecommunications between Estonia and Finland, as well as other Baltic nations, prompting increased NATO surveillance in the area.

Resolution Criteria

• Market resolves YES if there are any confirmed submarine cable damage incidents in the Baltic Sea region between January 1, 2025, and June 1, 2025

• Incidents must be confirmed by at least one of the following:

  • Official cable operator announcements

  • NATO statements

  • Government authorities of Baltic Sea nations

  • Multiple reputable news outlets with direct sources

• Damage must be to actual submarine cables (not other underwater infrastructure)

• Routine maintenance or planned cable work does not count

• Market resolves NO if no confirmed incidents occur during the specified timeframe

Considerations

• Recent incidents have led to increased surveillance and security measures in the region

• Investigation and confirmation of submarine cable incidents can take several days or weeks

• Weather-related or accidental damage may be difficult to distinguish from intentional interference initially