Background

Currently, only certain medical expenses related to surrogacy (like IVF, egg retrieval, and sperm donation) are tax deductible, while major costs such as surrogate compensation, surrogate medical bills, and agency fees are not. Legislative proposals like the Equal Access to Reproductive Care Act have aimed to expand what constitutes deductible medical care to include more surrogacy costs.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve YES if either of the following occurs by December 31, 2029:

1. Federal tax law is changed to make all surrogacy-related expenses tax deductible

2. Federal tax law is changed to make additional significant surrogacy expenses (beyond currently deductible medical procedures) tax deductible

The market will resolve NO if surrogacy expenses remain at their current level of tax deductibility by December 31, 2029.

Considerations

• Changes to tax deductibility would likely require congressional action and IRS policy updates

• Individual taxpayers can currently request Private Letter Rulings (PLRs) from the IRS for specific surrogacy expenses, but these are case-by-case determinations and do not change the general tax treatment of surrogacy expenses

• The political landscape and public attitudes toward assisted reproductive technology could influence potential legislative changes

• Any changes to tax law would need to define which specific surrogacy-related expenses qualify for deduction