Will the Nintendo Switch outsell the Nintendo DS before 2026?
Will the Nintendo Switch outsell the Nintendo DS before 2026?
Basic
11
Ṁ4272026
89%
chance
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1W
1M
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Resolution will be based on Nintendo Investor Relations data.
https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/hard_soft/index.html
As of the March 31st, 2023 update to their numbers, the DS sold 154.02 million units, and the Switch has sold 125.62 million units so far.
If Nintendo report that the Switch has outsold the DS at any point before 2026, this market will resolve YES. If they don't, NO.
The final chance will be the FY2026 Q3 sales update (likely to be released early February 2026), which should have data for unit sales up to December 31, 2025. If the Switch has not overtaken the DS according to that report's numbers, this market will resolve NO at that point.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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