Will we think PCPOSOS (Successor of LK-99) was a major achievement towards superconductivity and not a fraud?
Will we think PCPOSOS (Successor of LK-99) was a major achievement towards superconductivity and not a fraud?
Basic
2
Ṁ1852028
11%
chance
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1W
1M
ALL
Recently, SCTL got full levitation of PCPOSOS
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8cjNouFqUHs
By EOY 2027:
If many replicates show the truthfulness of PCPOSOS was truly inspirational to achieve room-temperature superconductivity, resolve YES
A wide recognition of LK-99 will also lead to this market resolve YES
If many trustworthy agencies showed that it is a fraud, resolve NO.
If none of the above two events happens at EOY 2027, resolve NO (not NA)
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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