What country will first denote a nuclear weapon in combat?
Basic
7
Ṁ2523050
45%
Russia
14%
North Korea
14%
7%
United States
4%
India
4%
Pakistan
1.7%
Iran
1.7%
South Africa
1.6%
Belarus
1.6%
Ukraine
1.5%
Israel
1.3%
United Kingdom
1.2%
France
1.2%
China
If no weapon is ever detonate, this market will remain open indefinitely.
If there's uncertainty as to responsibility, then I will resolve to whichever country the weapon was housed in. For example, if an ostensibly Russian-operated weapon is launched from Belarus, and both countries deny responsibility, this market will resolve to Belarus.
Betting policy: I expect resolution to be pretty much unambiguous, so I'll bet in this market unrestrictedly.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Which country will be the first to use a nuclear weapon in anger (post WW2)?
In the eventuality of a nuclear weapon being used, which country is most likely to detonate it first?
What country will detonate the next nuclear weapon?
In the eventuality of a nuclear weapon being used, where it will be dropped first?
Will a nuclear device be used offensively before April 1, 2025?
5% chance
What will be the next country to come into possession of a nuclear weapon?
Which of these twelve countries will have at least one known nuclear weapon in their possession at the end of 2025?
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in combat before January 1, 2030?
15% chance
What will the primary target of the next nuclear bomb used in conflict be?
Which countries will increase the size of their nuclear warhead stockpile in 2024?