In 2020, Joe Carlsmith estimated that 10^15 FLOPS is "enough" to perform human functionality. The next post estimating this number will believe it is >=10^15
In 2020, Joe Carlsmith estimated that 10^15 FLOPS is "enough" to perform human functionality. The next post estimating this number will believe it is >=10^15
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In OpenPhil's 2020 report https://www.openphilanthropy.org/brain-computation-report , Joe Carlsmith writes
> Overall, I think it more likely than not that 10^15 FLOP/s is enough to perform tasks as well as the human brain (given the right software, which may be very hard to create). And I think it unlikely (<10%) that more than 10^21 FLOP/s is required. But I’m not a neuroscientist, and there’s no consensus in neuroscience (or elsewhere).
This question will resolve when someone posts an estimate >1.5k words with >10 citations. If no such estimate is posted by May 24th 2024, I will resolve YES because `>=10^15` will still be the standing estimate.
See also https://aiimpacts.org/brain-performance-in-flops
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
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