Who will be France's next Prime Minister?
Who will be France's next Prime Minister?
Plus
14
Ṁ16kresolved Jun 9
100%99.0%
François Bayrou
0.2%
Sébastien Lecornu
0.2%
Xavier Bertrand
0.2%
Bernard Cazeneuve
0.1%
François Villeroy de Galhau
0.1%
Bruno Retailleau
0.2%Other
Resolution criteria: Resolves to the next Prime Minister of France once they officially take office and it's updated in France's Official Journal
Context: French lawmakers recently ousted Michel Barnier in the first successful no-confidence vote since 1962. Following Barnier's resignation, these candidates are being considered.
Sébastien Lecornu - Minister of Defense
François Bayrou - Leader of the Democratic Movement (MoDem)
Xavier Bertrand - President of the Hauts-de-France region
Bernard Cazeneuve - Former Prime Minister (2016–2017)
Traders may add additional names. @PuckMinder if you prefer not to use your mana and I'll add it.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
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