German troops deployed in Ukraine by 2027?
German troops deployed in Ukraine by 2027?
9
Ṁ1662027
25%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves according to the Wikipedia page
https://de.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Auslandseins%C3%A4tze_der_Bundeswehr which tracks abroad missions of the Bundeswehr.
Resolves Yes if there is
an ongoing mission (table "Laufende Einsätze") in Ukraine with a start date before 2027
an other mission / commitment ("Weitere Missionen / einsatzgleiche Verpflichtungen") in Ukraine with a start date before 2027
Resolves to official statements if the Wikipedia page ceases to exist or stops being updated.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
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