Will we return to monke by 2100?
Will we return to monke by 2100?
Plus
11
Ṁ2582100
10%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will humanity, for whatever reason, turn back into non-human primates before the year 2100? "Turn back" would mean either that the only descendants of humans that exist are non-human primates, or that living humans were somehow transformed into non-human primates. "Human" means a member of the homo genus.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Will Monkey wipe out humanity before the year 2050?
4% chance
Will Monkey do magic by 2030?
34% chance
Will there be an uplifted primate by 2060?
40% chance
Will more than half of 2024 extant monkey species be extinct in the wild by 2030?
3% chance
Will humanity still exist in 2100?
85% chance
Will the wild population of the Blond Titi Monkey (Callicebus barbarabrownae) become Extinct by 2100?
81% chance
Will human civilization have altered into an unrecognizable state by 2100?
44% chance
Will AI wipe out monkeys by 2030?
6% chance
Will humans be an endangered species by 2100?
7% chance
Will primates take over the Earth, á la Planet of the Apes, by 2080?
5% chance