Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024? | Manifold

Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024?

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This is based on the identical Metaculus question:

It has the same resolution criteria,

This question will resolve as Yes if, in calendar year 2024, a nuclear weapon detonates and kills at least 10 people. The detonation can occur for any reason, including tests and accidents.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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