Covid's origin has been debated for 5 years now, with the most popular theories being a natural spillover from wildlife or some kind of laboratory accident. Many people have strong opinions on this question, from scientists to pundits.

This question seeks to answer how those opinions will change, after another 5 years have passed. At the resolution date, I will search for the most recent statement from each person listed. If they say that a lab origin is more likely, I will resolve that name to yes. If they say that zoonosis is more likely, I will resolve that name to no. If they state they have no preference between the two theories, or explicitly say that the odds are very close to 50/50, I will resolve to 50%. If I can't find that person ever expressing an opinion on Covid origins, I will resolve to N/A.

I've added a few scientists that currently support zoonosis, some lab leak supporters, some pundits, and some people famous in the rationalist community. Please add additional names, especially of people that you think of as likely swing voters who might change their opinion based on new evidence.

This might help predict cases where the debate on covid's origin remains divided along tribal/political lines, but intelligent neutral observers shift towards one opinion or another as the evidence changes.