Will an LLM improve its own ability along some important metric well beyond the best trained LLMs before 2026? | Manifold

Will an LLM improve its own ability along some important metric well beyond the best trained LLMs before 2026?

Basic

5

Ṁ66

2026

58%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

Get

1,000

and

3.00

Related questions

Will LLMs mostly overcome the Reversal Curse by the end of 2025?

LLM Hallucination: Will an LLM score >90% on SimpleQA before 2026?

Will an LLM be able to solve the Self-Referential Aptitude Test before 2027?

Will Apple release its own LLM on par with state of the art LLMs before 2026?

Will a publicly-available LLM achieve gold on IMO before 2026?

6 months from now will I judge that LLMs had already peaked by Nov 2024?

Will LLMs be better than typical white-collar workers on all computer tasks before 2026?

Will the most advanced LLM stop being from a US-based company any time before 2030?

Will one of the major LLMs be capable of continual lifelong learning (learning from inference runs) by EOY 2025?

Will a LLM trained with FP4 have competitive performance in 2 years time?

Related questions

Will LLMs mostly overcome the Reversal Curse by the end of 2025?

6 months from now will I judge that LLMs had already peaked by Nov 2024?

LLM Hallucination: Will an LLM score >90% on SimpleQA before 2026?

Will LLMs be better than typical white-collar workers on all computer tasks before 2026?

Will an LLM be able to solve the Self-Referential Aptitude Test before 2027?

Will the most advanced LLM stop being from a US-based company any time before 2030?

Will Apple release its own LLM on par with state of the art LLMs before 2026?

Will one of the major LLMs be capable of continual lifelong learning (learning from inference runs) by EOY 2025?

Will a publicly-available LLM achieve gold on IMO before 2026?

Will a LLM trained with FP4 have competitive performance in 2 years time?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules