Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if the spot price of gold reaches $4,600 per troy ounce at any point before 11:59 PM UTC on December 31, 2025. Resolution will be determined using the spot price from major gold trading venues: the OTC London market, the US futures market (COMEX), or the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE). The resolution will use the highest intraday price recorded on any of these exchanges during the specified period.

Background

Gold was trading at $4,316 per ounce as of December 16, 2025, meaning the target of $4,600 represents approximately a 6.6% gain from current levels with just 15 days remaining in the year. Gold price surged to $4,355 per ounce on December 15, 2025, marking its fifth consecutive session of gains and approaching the all-time high of $4,383 reached on October 20. Gold has surged over 60% year-to-date, on track for its strongest annual gain since 1979.

Considerations

Long Forecast predicts gold will begin December at $4,255, reach a high of $4,669, and end the month at $4,408—suggesting the $4,600 level is within their forecasted range. However, other analysts project a target range of $4,310–$4,339.62 by end of December, which would fall short of $4,600. Goldman Sachs lifted its December 2026 target to $4,900, but that extends beyond the December 31, 2025 deadline. The tight timeframe and recent consolidation around $4,300–$4,350 make a $284+ move in 15 days a significant but not unprecedented move given gold's 2025 volatility.