By 2042, will at least 3 primary presidential candidates go to state prison of a opposition state?
By 2042, will at least 3 primary presidential candidates go to state prison of a opposition state?
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This market resolves to YES if by 2042, at least 3 people that are widely known to be primary candidates are put into state jail by a state governed by the opposing party.
If Donald Trump, one of leaders of the Republican party and favorite to lead the ballot in the 2024 race goes to jail in New York, this would count as the first example. If the candidate spends a night in prision, this would be enough to count.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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