Written by AI, reviewed by me

Resolution Criteria

This market resolves “Yes” if, on or before 31 December 2030, the UK enacts legislation that removes “settled status” as a qualifying condition for automatic citizenship at birth, so that a child born in the UK becomes a British citizen only when at least one parent is already a British citizen.

To count:

1. Legislative change must be in force via:

- An Act of Parliament amending the British Nationality Act 1981; or

- A statutory instrument expressly altering s.1(1) of that Act.

2. Effect – Settlement / ILR would no longer confer jus soli. Children of parents who are merely “settled” (but not British) would instead need to register later or qualify by other means.

3. Evidence – Confirmation via legislation.gov.uk or a government Explanatory Note, or coverage by reputable media.

If no such change is enacted and commenced by 31 Dec 2030, the market resolves “No.”

Background

Since 1983, UK citizenship at birth requires one parent to be either a British citizen or settled (ILR, EU permanent residence, etc.).

Policy debate:

- Critics argue settlement can be obtained relatively quickly, creating a “loophole” for quasi-birthright citizenship.

- Some think-tank and Reform UK proposals call for citizen-parent-only jus soli, mirroring rules in Germany pre-2000 and today’s Ireland.

Political drivers:

- Continued high net migration and social-cohesion concerns.

- Pressure to deter “citizenship tourism” or “anchor baby” narratives.

- Possible alignment with a wider move toward points-based family migration and tougher sponsorship thresholds.

A move to citizen-parent-only birthright would mark the tightest UK nationality regime since 1708.

Notes & Considerations

A change applying *only to Northern Ireland** (e.g. via future-Union debates) would not satisfy this market; reform must cover the whole UK.

Any carve-out for parents serving in HM Forces overseas also does not affect resolution.

The market ignores proposals: law must be enacted and in force by the deadline.