Will the US Navy commission more than three Gerald R. Ford-class aircraft carriers?
Will the US Navy commission more than three Gerald R. Ford-class aircraft carriers?
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Commissioning is the formal entry into service of a ship, not the act of ordering its construction.
Resolves YES if the US commissions a fourth Ford-class carrier.
Resolves NO if the US formally commits not to construct and commission a fourth Ford-class carrier AND a US presidential election has taken place subsequent to that decision AND the decision is not reversed by the winner of that election (three months after swearing in)
The NO criteria seem a bit over the top, but apart from applying 'by X year' instead, which I don't want to do, they may be the best choice.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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