Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an American astronaut walks on the Moon between January 20, 2025, and January 20, 2029. Verification will be based on official NASA announcements and reputable news sources.

Background

NASA's Artemis program aims to return humans to the Moon. Artemis III, the mission intended to achieve this, has faced multiple delays. As of December 2024, NASA announced a postponement of Artemis III to mid-2027 due to technical challenges, including heat shield issues on the Orion capsule. (reuters.com) Further delays are possible, and the mission's timeline may extend beyond the current schedule.

Considerations

• Technical Challenges: Ongoing issues with spacecraft components, such as the Orion capsule's heat shield, could lead to additional delays.

• Policy Changes: The incoming administration under President Donald Trump may influence NASA's priorities and funding, potentially affecting the Artemis program's timeline.

• International Competition: China plans to land astronauts on the Moon by 2030, which may impact NASA's scheduling and urgency. (space.com)

Given these factors, the likelihood of an American walking on the Moon during Trump's second term remains uncertain.