Will there be a fission power plant with no moving parts by 2050?
Will there be a fission power plant with no moving parts by 2050?
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Ṁ552050
45%
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Pb-Te thermoelectrics can achieve an efficiency of 20% with Thot = 875K and Tcold=300K. Thermal neutron fission cross sections are have a strong negative relationship to temperature. Graphite, silicon carbide, and beryllium all remain great thermal conductors and neutron moderators after irradiation at 875-1000K. Based on this it should be possible to make a fission power plant with no moving parts whatsoever. Thereby the entire plant would meet all four of the IAEA's criteria for passive safety: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Passive_nuclear_safety. Resolves YES if such a plant exists before 2050. Minimum 1KWe (so micro-reactors on space probes count).
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
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and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
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