Will Joe Biden be photographed using a mobility aid (e.g. a cane) before 2029?
Will Joe Biden be photographed using a mobility aid (e.g. a cane) before 2029?
Plus
22
Ṁ5802029
69%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if Joe Biden is photographed with a mobility aid, including but not limited to a cane, walker, or wheelchair, at any time before close.
Resolves NO if no visual evidence of Joe Biden using a mobility aid surfaces, even if there is credible non visual evidence that he has used one.
In the case of Joe Biden declaring such an image fraudulent, I will defer to the consensus of mainstream publications, such as the New York Times.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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