Which organism will the first released or escaped gene drive target?
Which organism will the first released or escaped gene drive target?
Basic
9
Ṁ1992040
50%
Mosquito
2%
Human
7%
Screwworm
2%
Plant
2%
Fungus
13%
Fruit fly
7%
Fish
16%
The categories here range in their breadth. Feel free to post new, interesting responses but keep them mutually exclusive. I will probably remove new categories that overlap with old ones. I'll resolve to the category that the first organism modified with a gene drive which escaped to the wild falls under, as far as we know, once we know of such an instance. I'll resolve one year after this was found if there is no significant ambiguity. If significant evidence only emerges after a year that there was an earlier escaped gene drive, I won't correct the resolution.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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