Will Neuralink achieve "combined I/O Bit rate > 1Mbs" by 2030?
Will Neuralink achieve "combined I/O Bit rate > 1Mbs" by 2030?
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See https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1867978513149530439
Resolution Criteria (AI generated)
Market resolves YES if Neuralink publicly announces or demonstrates having installed a device with a combined input/output bit rate exceeding 1 megabit per second (Mbps) at any point before December 31, 2030, 23:59:59 UTC. This includes both the data received from the brain (input) and the signals sent to the brain (output) combined.
Resolves NO if:
Neuralink fails to achieve or announce such a milestone by the end of 2030
Neuralink ceases operations before achieving this goal
The company achieves a higher bit rate but only in laboratory conditions without actual human installation
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
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