Will anyone do something significantly unpleasant to me to manipulate any of my personal markets before 2035?
Will anyone do something significantly unpleasant to me to manipulate any of my personal markets before 2035?
Basic
4
Ṁ1162035
13%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Minor annoyances don't count. Only things that I'd consider seriously unethical. I'll defer to a community vote if it seems borderline.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Will any of my markets get me a cease-and-desist or legal threat by 2030?
20% chance
Will any of my markets get me a cease-and-desist or legal threat by 2030?
11% chance
Will Manifold take down any user content due to legal threats that violate free speech principles before 2030?
30% chance
Will I create a controversial market in 2025?
45% chance
Will someone commit murder for the sake of a Manifold death market by the end of 2030?
3% chance
Will I be able to resolve this market myself at the end of 2030?
61% chance
Will a silly Manifold market wipe out humanity before 2030?
1% chance
Will something horrible happen to Polymarket deposits by 2030?
Will I be murdered before 2030?
4% chance
Will there be a recorded case of manipulating the real stock exchange index to obtain a huge amount of Ṁ before 2035?
5% chance