Donald Trump dies before 2036?
Donald Trump dies before 2036?
12
Ṁ1582035
82%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolution Criteria
This market resolves YES if Donald Trump dies before January 1, 2036. It resolves NO if he is still alive on or after January 1, 2036.
Background
Donald Trump was born on June 14, 1946, making him 77 years old as of 2023. He served as the 45th President of the United States from 2017 to 2021 and is currently a candidate in the 2024 presidential election.
Considerations
Considering Donald Trump health and age do you think he dies in the next 10 years?
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Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
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