Will a Turing Award be given out for work on AI alignment or existential safety by 2040?
Plus
28
Ṁ5032040
79%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves yes if, in my judgement, that’s the reason for the award, even if those exact terms don’t appear in the official announcement.
If I’m not around, someone else can resolve it in that spirit.
Past winners and rationales: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turing_Award
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will an AI get a Nobel Prize before 2050?
29% chance
By 2028, will I believe that contemporary AIs are aligned (posing no existential risk)?
33% chance
Before 2030, will an AI complete the Turing Test in the Kurzweil/Kapor Longbet?
53% chance
Conditional on their being no AI takeoff before 2030, will the majority of AI researchers believe that AI alignment is solved?
34% chance
Conditional on their being no AI takeoff before 2050, will the majority of AI researchers believe that AI alignment is solved?
51% chance
I make a contribution to AI safety that is endorsed by at least one high profile AI alignment researcher by the end of 2026
59% chance
Will there be serious AI safety drama at Meta AI before 2026?
58% chance
Will an AI get an Ig Nobel Prize before 2050?
70% chance
Will a >$10B AI alignment megaproject start work before 2030?
29% chance
Will a Nobel prize be awarded for the invention of AGI before 2050?
28% chance