This market resolves YES if undergraduate enrolment in the UK drops by 20% or more relative to the 2025 baseline:

• Total undergraduate enrolment falls below 80% of the 2025 level, based on official data from HESA (Higher Education Statistics Agency) or a UK government source.

• Crucially, the drop must be plausibly linked to AI. This could include evidence that students are choosing AI learning alternatives, institutions are citing AI as a reason for declining enrolment, or official reports attribute part of the decline to the growing role of AI has in automating the economy.

• The causal connection to AI does not need to be conclusive, but it must be reasonable and supported by documentation (e.g. policy papers, media reporting, or institutional statements).

Please feel free to ask questions if you’re unsure how to interpret this criterion when betting.

I will not bet in this market.