Will the World's GDP double in 5 years?
Will the World's GDP double in 5 years?
Plus
46
Ṁ45352028
9%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
We will resolve it at the closing time to "No" if there's no year with growth over 14% or insufficient growth for the GDP to have doubled.
Otherwise, I will have to wait for official statistics to resolve this.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Will the World's GDP double in 10 years?
33% chance
Will world real GDP jump by 20% in a year over any previous year in before 2040?
31% chance
Will the World GDP rise or fall by at least 10% year over year in at least one of the next 15 years?
53% chance
Will world real GDP jump by 20% in a year over any previous year in before 2030?
13% chance
Will US real GDP pc double by 2050?
75% chance
Will the World GDP rise or fall by at least 10% year over year in at least one of the next 20 years?
58% chance
Will the World GDP rise or fall by at least 10% year over year in at least one of the next 10 years?
14% chance
Will US real GDP pc double by 2040?
53% chance
When will be the first year that GDP doubles (i.e., a period of 12 months in which there is 100% growth of global GDP)?
2052
Will US real GDP pc double by 2070?
86% chance