Will @FlorinSays be alive and capable in 2100 to resolve any of his long-term markets?
Basic
8
Ṁ1622100
20%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
I'll resolve this to YES myself, if possible. Otherwise this can be resolved with NO, by the anyone capable after 5 years of account inactivity.
Please make an educated guess, don't dox or profile me. 🙏
LE: Also, please don't lock too much Mana in this.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
Will Someone Join This Market Who Will Live To The Year 2110?
62% chance
Will Manifold Markets still exist in a decade? (Jan 2, 2034)
63% chance
Will I be able to resolve this market myself at the end of 2030?
61% chance
Will I be around to resolve this market in December 2027?
69% chance
Will Manifold Markets still exist in 2040?
93% chance
Will an AGI resolve this market by 2100?
34% chance
Will Elon Musk be alive through the end of 2040?
56% chance
Will Manifold Markets still be active in 2030?
85% chance
Will Elon Musk still be alive at the beginning of 2030?
91% chance
Will Elon Musk be alive through the end of 2030?
91% chance