Nuclear risk 2024: How many of the 8 linked questions will resolve Yes? [Unlinked Format]
Plus
15
Ṁ7596resolved Jan 3
Resolved
NO>= 4
Resolved
NO>= 6
Resolved
NO>= 8
Resolved
NO>= 3
Resolved
NO>= 2
Resolved
NO>= 1
This is a duplicate of this market, but as the unlinked format instead of linked:
/EvanDaniel/nuclear-risk-2024-how-many-of-the-8
How many of these markets will resolve Yes?
/IsaacKing/will-any-nuclear-weapon-be-detonate-b81a727f8cd4
/EvanDaniel/will-a-nuclear-weapon-be-detonated-6cba7b4a2e34
/EvanDaniel/will-any-country-that-is-not-curren
/EvanDaniel/will-a-nuclear-missile-be-successfu
/EvanDaniel/will-north-korea-detonate-a-nuclear-bbd6762bfb35
/EvanDaniel/will-there-be-an-accidental-nuclear
/EvanDaniel/will-an-aboveground-nuclear-test-ta
/EvanDaniel/will-any-country-formally-leave-the
This is a derivative market; it will resolve exactly according to the linked markets. Inidivual options will resolve as they are able to if some of the underlying markets resolve early or late.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ56 | |
| 2 | Ṁ41 | |
| 3 | Ṁ23 | |
| 4 | Ṁ21 | |
| 5 | Ṁ20 |
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Nuclear Risk 2025: How many of the 7 linked questions resolve Yes?
Nuclear War 2025: How many of the linked markets resolve Yes?
Will a nuclear disaster occur that scores a 5, 6, or 7 on the International Nuclear Event Scale by EOY 2030?
44% chance
Will a nuclear disaster occur that scores a 7 on the International Nuclear Event Scale by EOY 2030?
13% chance
Will nuclear weapons cause at least [1, 1000, 100000] deaths in 2025?
1 day before the explosion, what will be the % at the linked market about "nuclear offensive detonation in 2025"?
Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2028?
15% chance
Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2027?
22% chance
Will there be further proliferation of nuclear weapons until 2028?
73% chance
Will a nuclear power incident cause 25 deaths (or equivalent) before 2030?
13% chance