JD Vance will be the republican nominee for pres in 2028 and gives a major anti-AI speech at the convention
JD Vance will be the republican nominee for pres in 2028 and gives a major anti-AI speech at the convention
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Being very specific here. It's got to be both JD Vance as the nominee, and in his nomination speech he's also got to give a speech where the main topic of the speech is CLEARLY AI. i.e. not just mentioned, but mentioned FIRST if multiple issues are raised; and if multiple issues are mentioned, then impartial textual and emotional analysis should reveal that the major issue he's giving his position on is about AI.
Deadline: whatever the normal (or rescheduled) republican party is (or the natural successor party, if there is one)
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
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and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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