Will SpaceX's Starship cross the International Date Line by the end of Q2 2026?

Ṁ287

2026

68%

chance

ALL

This resolves as yes if Starship launches from the Americas and crosses the 180th meridian before landing, crashing, or breaking up.

For example, launching in an Easterly direction from Texas and breaking up on reentry near Hawaii would qualify.

I created this market because of uncertainty about what constitutes "going into orbit" if Starship completes less than one revolution around the earth.

UTC is used to determine the end of Q2 2026. The quarter ends at midnight on June 30. If there is a difference between the date line and the 180th meridian, it is the 180th meridian that applies. If debris from a breakup falls on both sides, I will attempt to determine where the majority by weight landed. The fate of the Superheavy booster is not taken into account.

See also https://manifold.markets/ErikCorry/will-spacexs-starship-cross-the-int-ltd5QIl6zE

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