What will be the first year Tadej Pogacar does NOT start the Tour de France?
Basic
10
Ṁ16022034
1.1%
2024
12%
2025
18%
2026
29%
2027
18%
2028
7%
2029
4%
2030
4%
2031
4%
2032
3%
2033 or later
Resolves Yes to the first calendar year where Tadej Pogacar does not start the first stage (or prologue) of the Tour de France.
If he appears on the startlist but does not actually start the stage, that is probably a DNS. If he appears on the startlist, starts the first stage, and quits before it is over, that is probably NOT a DNS.
If the Tour de France is not held in any season, I am going to N/A this question because that is simply not what I am interested in. I don't want anyone to need to calculate "The TDF stops existing" into their valuations. So just assume the TDF happens every year.
If he does not start due to injury, season plan, etc., those are all expected and would resolve this Yes.
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What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
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Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
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In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
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