Was Hamas using the Al-Ansar mosque as a terrorist compound?
Was Hamas using the Al-Ansar mosque as a terrorist compound?
Basic
7
Ṁ116
Dec 31
65%
chance

Includes a compound bellow the mosque.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67186178.amp

I will not bet in this market.

Resolution criteria:

I will make a judgement based on arguments in the comments and a critical reading of many sources, including the following:

  1. Post war report from amnesty international

    Eg: https://www.amnesty.org/en/documents/mde21/1178/2015/en/

  2. Findings from Isreal's Military Advocate General's Corps

    More about them here: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_Advocate_General

  3. Eg: https://www.idf.il/en/mini-sites/military-advocate-general-s-corps/mag-corps-press-release-update-2-dec-2014

  4. Open source intelligence analysis

  5. Official Palestinian reports

  6. Offical reports from other governments

Market resolution goes based on what I expect the median informed, intelligent person reading the same evidence would come away with.

If I judge there is not a preponderance of evidence pointing one way or another, I'll resolve NA.

I may change the criteria to make them better in response to suggestions.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00
, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules