Longtermism is the ethical view that positively influencing the long-term future is a key moral priority. Since the early 2020s, many longtermist thinkers (such as those associated with Effective Altruism or organizations like Open Philanthropy, FHI, and 80,000 Hours) have made forecasts about global risks, AI development, civilizational longevity, population ethics, and more.

This market resolves YES if, by the year 2100, a consensus among credible historians, philosophers, or analysts (e.g., in published academic or institutional assessments) holds that the majority of major longtermist predictions made before 2030 were directionally correct—i.e., they broadly anticipated the nature, importance, or trajectory of the issues they addressed, even if not perfectly precise.

For example:

• If longtermists predicted AI as a key global risk and AI indeed becomes one, this counts as directionally correct.

• If longtermists emphasized space colonization as a moral priority and it becomes widely regarded as irrelevant or harmful, this may count against them.

Vague or marginal predictions don’t count; the focus is on major, widely circulated longtermist claims. This market allows discussion and speculation on whether longtermism will be vindicated over the long arc of the 21st century.

Would you want to link to a few example predictions (e.g., from Toby Ord’s The Precipice or