Will the African Wild Dog (Lycaon pictus) become extinct in the current century?
Will the African Wild Dog (Lycaon pictus) become extinct in the current century?
Plus
8
Ṁ4412099
50%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The African Wild Dog is a wild canine native to sub-Saharan Africa. This market will resolve YES if the African Wild Dog is declared extinct by the IUCN by 2100 or earlier, and NO if it is not declared extinct by the IUCN in 2100.
Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/African_wild_dog
IUCN Red List of Threatened Species Assessment: Endangered
https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/12436/166502262
For comparison, here the market about the wild extinction risk of the species:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
bought Ṁ50 NO
This is my favourite animal. Maybe I'm betting with my heart
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Will the African Forest Elephant (Loxodonta cyclotis) become Extinct by 2100?
55% chance
Will the wild population of the African Wild Dog (Lycaon pictus) become extinct by 2100?
61% chance
Will the wild population of the African Forest Elephant (Loxodonta cyclotis) become extinct by 2100?
67% chance
Will the Wolf (Canis lupus) become extinct in the current century?
14% chance
Will the Lion (Panthera leo) become extinct in the current century?
16% chance
African Savanna Elephant (Loxodonta africana) Extinct by 2100?
16% chance
Will the Eurasian Lynx (Lynx lynx) become extinct in the current century?
13% chance
Will the Leopard (Panthera pardus) become extinct in the current century?
27% chance
Will the African Buffalo (Syncerus caffer) become Extinct by 2100?
13% chance
Will the wild population of the Lion (Panthera leo) become extinct by 2100?
31% chance