How many parameters will the first AGI* have?
How many parameters will the first AGI* have?
4
Ṁ2172045
8%
<1T
18%
1T-10T
28%
10T-100T
23%
100T-1000T
23%
>1000T
AGI* is based on Demis Hassabis' interpretation
https://youtu.be/M2ZtBQI2-GY?si=M-2yDZMNTvf64BnT
https://youtu.be/64lXQP6cs5M?si=V7zE_lylXD49RCWH
Here they mention that the human brain has 30-300T synapses which leads to lossy approximations of the human brain via phenomenon like polysemanticity
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
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and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
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