If the identity of Satoshi is ever definitively proven, who will it be?
If the identity of Satoshi is ever definitively proven, who will it be?
Basic
12
Ṁ23510000
3%
Hal Finney
3%
Dorian Nakamoto
3%
Len Sassaman
3%
Wei Dai
3%
Adam Back
3%
Paul Le Roux
0.7%
Craig Wright
17%
Nick Szabo
3%
Multiple People
60%
Other
If Satoshi is definitively proven to be one of the people listed, that person will resolve yes. Otherwise, that person will resolve no. If Satoshi is revealed to be multiple people, that option will resolve yes, and all the others - even if those others were part of the group - will resolve no. If Satoshi got occasional help, or occasionally gave another person account access, that will not be sufficient for other to resolve to yes. However, constant writing code together and constant and continuous sharing of account credentials will count.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
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