Who will be the next leader of the Australian Labor Party?
Who will be the next leader of the Australian Labor Party?
Basic
11
Ṁ2672029
13%
Tanya Plibersek
4%
Chris Bowen
43%
Jim Chalmers
3%
Richard Marles
3%
Bill Shorten
6%
Penny Wong
28%
The ALP leader has historically always been a serving member of the House of Representatives.
This market will only resolve to named individual people.
This market will not resolve to an acting leader, unless they become the permanent leader.
If no change of leadership occurs by the closing date, it will be extended.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
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