Quantum Telescopes by 2030?
Quantum Telescopes by 2030?
Plus
11
Ṁ2462029
31%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
In a well-cited article, Gottesman, Jennewein, and Croke propose a design for a telescope system that uses quantum information to carry out interferometric measurements over light collected in widely-separated telescopes.
This question asks if such a system will exist by 2030. To qualify, the system must:
Observe light from actual astronomical objects, rather than simulated light.
Must actually transmit quantum information using the described "quantum repeater" rather than just redirecting the light itself.
Must make scientific observations that would not be technologically possible using other techniques deployed at the time the observations are made.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
Terrascope mission launched by 2035?
15% chance
Will a Terrascope (a space telescope that uses a planet's atmosphere as a giant lens) launch and successfully perform observations by the end of 2042?
30% chance
Will communications transmission tech based on quantum entanglement exist and be in use before 2030?
6% chance
Solar gravitational lens mission launched by 2035?
20% chance
Will a quantum money that can support a long-term galactic civilization be designed before 2035?
22% chance
Will we know if gravity is fundamentally quantum by the end of 2030?
20% chance
Will a quantum computer with at least 1500 qubits be announced before the end of 2030?
91% chance
Which interpretation of quantum mechanics will be accepted by 2030
Commercial application of quantum pseudo-telepathy by 2030?
10% chance
Quantum Breakthrough before 2050
80% chance