If Trump becomes president, will more people be imprisoned federally for drug offenses?
If Trump becomes president, will more people be imprisoned federally for drug offenses?
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Ṁ682026
56%
chance
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1W
1M
ALL
As of 20 April, 2024, 64,121 people are in US federal prisons for drug offenses.
Resolves based on https://www.bop.gov/about/statistics/statistics_inmate_offenses.jsp
Market closes just before the 2026 midterms.
This market resolves NA if Trump doesn’t win.
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@traders unless anyone has a compelling objection I’ll edit this to say “a republican ” instead of “Trump” tomorrow 7/23/2024.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
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and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
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