Will Elon Musk call for "trial by winning video game" [eg AOE2] to resolve a dispute by EOY 2031?
Basic
3
Ṁ352032
37%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
as an alternative to "trial by combat"
https://www.reddit.com/r/aoe2/comments/1bd3jm8/javier_mileis_right_hand_adorni_challenges_left/
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Will someone be seen or filmed to slap or punch Elon Musk hard in the face before June 30, 2025?
3% chance
Will Elon Musk challenge someone to a physical fight before the end of 2025?
46% chance
Will Elon Musk challenges Jeff Bezos, Tim Cook, Sundar Pichai, OR Jensen Huang to a fight before end of 2025?
10% chance
Will Elon Musk be tried for treason before 2026?
2% chance
Elon Musk commits suicide by EOY2025?
3% chance
Will Elon Musk be arrested for any reason before 2030?
33% chance
Will Elon Musk spend a night in prison / jail by EOY 2026?
5% chance
Will Elon Musk livestream himself playing Sid Meier's Alpha Centauri with OTHER real people by EOY2030?
37% chance
Will Elon Musk be arrested for any reason by the end of 2030?
27% chance
Will Elon Musk be sentenced to execution by the US justice system before 2032?
1% chance