Will the Northern Territory of Australia become a state by 2040?
Will the Northern Territory of Australia become a state by 2040?
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Northern Territory statehood has been talked about for a long time (see https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-08-14/northern-territory-statehood-future/101292860), and it's the most obvious candidate for a 7th Australian state, but it's not obvious if or when statehood will actually happen.
This question resolves to yes if by 31 December 2040, the Northern Territory has become a state. (The name of the state, or any discontinuities between the legal institutions of the new state and the current NT are irrelevant - I'll count any newly-established state or states, under any name, that includes any of the territory of the NT.)
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What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
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