Background
Historically, the U.S. economy has taken roughly 15–20 years to double in nominal GDP. For instance, it increased from around $10 trillion in 2000 to about $20 trillion in 2017. Some experts argue that an AGI—or an AI passing the Turing test—could dramatically boost productivity and compress this timeline. This question explores how many years after such a milestone it will take for U.S. nominal GDP to double.
Resolution Criteria
Event Trigger
A widely recognized, public declaration that an AI system has achieved AGI or passed the Turing test (e.g., via official government statements, major scientific bodies, or broad consensus among AI researchers).Baseline
The official BEA “Current-Dollar GDP” for the first full calendar year following the recognized AGI/Turing test event becomes the baseline.Example: If the declaration occurs in 2030, then 2031 is the baseline year.
Time Check
Starting with the first full calendar year after the baseline, compare each year’s BEA “Current-Dollar GDP” to the baseline figure.
If GDP is at least twice the baseline in Year N (where N is the number of years after the baseline), that is the first year in which nominal GDP has doubled.
Example: Declaration in 2030 → Baseline year = 2031 → Then check 2032 (1 year after baseline), 2033 (2 years), etc., until GDP is at least double.
Timing
Use the first published annual estimate for each year to determine when nominal GDP has doubled relative to the baseline.
The earliest year that meets or exceeds double the baseline GDP is the resolution point for the question.
Fine Print
Nominal GDP refers exclusively to “current-dollar GDP” as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
If the BEA changes its reporting format or becomes temporarily unavailable, a comparable official U.S. government source may be used.
Real (inflation-adjusted) GDP is not considered for this question.
“Widely recognized” for AGI/Turing test status is based on a combination of official or expert consensus statements.
1,000
3.00