Longtermist Policymaking provokes Thermonuclear War by 1st Jan 2028
Longtermist Policymaking provokes Thermonuclear War by 1st Jan 2028
Basic
10
Ṁ3902028
11%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The third of a trio of forecasts made by the New Statesman.
Resolution Criteria: A Yudkowsky-like "The Way"/Effective Altruist/Longtermist/Successor Movement policy proposal to e.g. bomb GPU Farms is responded to by a nuclear-armed nation as provocation, increasing the chance of a nuclear war by 1st Jan 2028. This is reported by two credible news outlets e.g. BBC News, New Statesman.
Alternate Resolution Criteria: As my paper calendar marks 1st Jan 2028 from my conrete bomb shelter, I lightly chuckle at my hubris to even ask such a question.
The Manifold Market remains unresolved.
New Statesman Article [paywall]
https://magazine.newstatesman.com/2023/08/03/longtermism-is-a-threat-to-humanity/content.html
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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