In 2026, will the largest AI-based commercial forecasting system (by revenue) have a platform-wide Brier score <0.1?
Plus
9
Ṁ20222027
17%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question automatically resolves NO if the market for commercial AI forecasting, involving for-profit companies, does not exist or has less than $1B in revenue during 2026. Otherwise, resolves to whether the commercial AI forecasting service with the highest 2026 revenue publishes data showing a platform-wide Brier score below 0.1.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of...
Will a poll say AI obsoleted human forecasters in 2024?
1% chance
Will AI generate a decent commercial before 2026?
70% chance
Will pre-2026 AI out-forecast the Metaculus community?
58% chance
The AI company with the smartest AI system by the end of 2026
By which years will AI be shown to have a better log loss than the Metaculus community pred. on <= 1 year predictions?
Will AI image generating models score >= 90% on Winoground by June 1, 2025?
81% chance
Will a company with at least $1B in revenue be run primarily by an AI CEO before 2030?
23% chance
Will the "AI Longbets Turing Test by 2029" market go above 80% by EOY 2026?
77% chance
Will we have better-than-human-aggregate forecasting AIs by the end of 2024?
5% chance