Before the Hamas-Israeli war there was intensive negotiations between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if Israel and Saudi Arabia formally establish diplomatic relations before the next Israeli national elections. This includes any official announcement or agreement that establishes formal diplomatic ties between the two countries.

The market resolves NO if:

• The next Israeli elections occur without diplomatic relations being established

• Either country explicitly abandons normalization efforts

Background

Israel and Saudi Arabia have engaged in clandestine cooperation for decades, sharing common interests such as opposing Iranian influence in the region. However, they do not currently maintain formal diplomatic relations.

Saudi Arabia has consistently emphasized that normalization with Israel is contingent on progress regarding the Palestinian issue, specifically the establishment of a Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital. This position has been a significant hurdle in normalization talks.

Recent developments that have complicated potential normalization include:

• The ongoing conflict in Gaza

• Saudi Arabia's diplomatic breakthrough with Iran

• Domestic political considerations in both countries

While there have been reports of breakthroughs in normalization talks, these have often been disputed by official sources. Both countries continue to have strategic reasons to consider normalization, but significant obstacles remain.