Will OpenAI release next-generation models with varying capabilities and sizes?
Basic
10
Ṁ3282026
77%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves to YES if OpenAI releases next-generation foundation models of different capabilities & sizes(eg. release of Anthropic's Claude 3 haiku/sonnet/opus).
If OpenAI releases a next-generation model and a optimized version of it at the same time, and they are in the different capability class unlike GPT-4 and GPT-4 turbo, then this question will resolve to yes.
Resolves to No if OpenAI just releases one model(eg. release of GPT-4).
The models must be the same family. (GPT-4.5 turbo & GPT-5 -> NO)
This question is limited to release date only. If OpenAI releases smaller or larger version of the model after the initial release date, that doesn't count.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
When will OpenAI release a more capable LLM?
Will OpenAI offer a model that updates its weights while running during 2025?
26% chance
When will OpenAI release a robotics model?
What will OpenAI's next foundation model be called?
Will OpenAI release a model which generates images using reasoning / inference-time scaling before 2026?
63% chance
Will a single model achieve superhuman performance on all OpenAI gym environments by 2025?
25% chance
Is the OpenAI model spec the upcoming definition for next major API release?
80% chance
Will OpenAI release a product with stateful AI agents by 2025?
80% chance
Will OpenAI release a LLM with a bigger context length than 128K by 2026?
93% chance
Will OpenAI open source the weights to one of the GPT family models in 2024?
2% chance